How Would A War In Ukraine Affect The Spanish Economy?

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Europe is facing one of the most important international conflicts in its recent history. The sound of war drums in Ukraine is still present and markets around the world watch every political move with a magnifying glass. Both Russia and Ukraine are providers in Europe of key resources such as natural gas, oil, or grain. In the energy aspect, probably the most important of all, Spain has a great advantage in the face of a possible conflict: it does not depend on natural gas that comes from Russia. Unlike Germany, Hungary, or the Baltic countries, Spain imports its gas through large methane tankers that transport it in a liquid state to one of the six regasification plants that currently exist. Even so, we could not avoid the consequences of a general rise in energy and fuel prices throughout Europe.

In other respects, Spain is in a worse position. Our cereal imports depend heavily on Ukraine: practically half of the corn we consume is imported from this country. A halt in exports would unequivocally translate into an increase in prices. The precedent can be found in the Russian invasion of Crimea, when cereal prices rose by 20%, according to Toño Catón, director of Herbaceous Crops of Agro-food Cooperatives. This inflation scenario could make a special dent in Spain. A reduction in debt purchases and a rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB), would punish those economies with more public debt over GDP. Spain is one of them. In the video that accompanies this news, you can see the analysis of various experts on the impact that a conflict in Ukraine could have on the Spanish economy.

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